Released ~ April 21, 2026
Advance retail and food services sales rose 1.7% m/m to $752.1B, above 1.4% consensus; February revised to +0.7% ($739.8B). Gains driven by gasoline prices and autos; ex-gas softer, indicating inflation-led nominal strength.
Released April 10, 2026
Nominal average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 0.2% in March, but real average hourly earnings (adjusted for inflation) fell 0.6% due to a 0.9% surge in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). No revisions or consensus forecasts noted.
Released ~ April 10, 2026
The BLS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted in March 2026, matching consensus, lifting the 12-month rate to 3.3 percent (versus 3.1 percent expected) from 2.4 percent prior with no revisions. Energy surged 10.9 percent, led by gasoline up 21.2 percent.
Released ~ April 9, 2026
Seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims rose 16,000 to 219,000 in the week ending April 4, exceeding consensus forecasts of 210,000. The prior week was revised up 1,000 to 203,000. The four-week average increased 1,500 to 209,500. Increases were led by Texas, New York, and Oregon with no dominant national factors noted.
By C.S. Hamlin ~ April 6, 2026
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered 54 percent in March 2026, signaling expansion in the services sector for the 21st consecutive month and 1.7 points above the 12-month average of 52.3 percent. The reading marks a 2.1-percentage-point decline from February’s 56.1 percent, with no revisions to prior-month data.
Softening was driven by the Business Activity Index falling to 53.9 percent and the Employment Index contracting to 45.2 percent for the first time in four months. Offsetting strength came from the New Orders Index rising to 60.6 percent and the Backlog of Orders Index holding at 53.6 percent. The Prices Index jumped 7.7 points to 70.7 percent, its highest since October 2022, amid higher oil and fuel costs tied to Middle East conflict disruptions.
Credit professionals should view the report with cautious optimism: sustained services-sector growth continues to support overall economic expansion and annualized real GDP gains, yet employment weakness and sharp price pressures warrant heightened monitoring of client liquidity and cost pass-through risks. Consider tightening review protocols for borrowers exposed to fuel-price volatility or supply-chain delays.
By C.S. Hamlin ~ April 3, 2026
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payroll employment rose 178,000 in March, exceeding consensus forecasts near 60,000. This followed a revised February decline of 133,000 (down 41,000 from prior estimate) and an upward January revision to +160,000 (up 34,000), leaving the three-month average subdued around 68,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%, with 7.2 million unemployed. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% to $37.38 (+3.5% year-over-year).
Job gains were led by health care (+76,000, partly from strike recoveries), construction (+26,000), and transportation/warehousing (+21,000), while federal government fell 18,000 and financial activities edged down 15,000. Payrolls showed little net change over the prior 12 months.
Credit professionals should monitor softening momentum and sector concentration for credit risk in government-dependent or cyclical industries. The report's measured tone supports cautious optimism for stability but warrants vigilance on potential further cooling. Maintain selective exposure and stress-test portfolios for slower hiring.
Released ~ April 3, 2026
The U-3 (headline) unemployment rate edged down to 4.3 percent in March 2026 from a revised 4.4 percent in February, beating consensus expectations of 4.4 percent. The number of unemployed fell 332,000, though largely due to labor force contraction.
Released ~ April 3, 2026
Nonfarm payroll employment rose 178,000 in March, beating consensus forecasts of approximately 60,000. February was revised down 41,000 to -133,000; January revised up 34,000 to +160,000. Gains were led by health care (+76,000, including strike recoveries), construction (+26,000) and transportation/warehousing (+21,000), while federal government declined.
Released ~ April 3, 2026
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 9 cents (0.2 percent) to $37.38 in March, with no prior-month revision reported. The 3.5 percent year-over-year gain showed continued moderate wage growth amid steady hiring.
By C.S. Hamlin ~ April 3, 2026
The S&P Global US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Business Activity Index registered 49.8 in March 2026, falling below the 50.0 benchmark that separates expansion from contraction and marking the first decline in service-sector output since January 2023. The final reading was revised downward from the flash estimate of 51.1 and dropped 1.9 points from February’s 51.7, reaching the lowest level in over three years.
The contraction was driven by the weakest new-orders growth in nearly two years, reduced client confidence amid worries over rising prices from the Middle East conflict, and a sharper deterioration in export trade compounded by tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Employment edged lower for the first time since December, while input-cost and selling-price inflation accelerated to 2026 highs, largely due to surging energy costs.
The report’s stagflationary tone—stalled activity paired with intensifying price pressures—signals heightened risks for credit portfolios. Credit professionals should exercise caution by tightening underwriting for consumer-facing service borrowers, stress-testing exposures for sustained energy-cost impacts and demand weakness, and maintaining selective exposure to more resilient segments such as financial services and technology.
Released ~ April 1, 2026
U.S. retail and food services sales advanced 0.6 percent in February 2026 to $738.4 billion, beating consensus forecasts for a 0.5 percent rise. January's estimate was revised upward to a 0.1 percent decline. Nonstore retailers posted strong year-over-year gains.
Released ~ April 1, 2026
ADP reported private nonfarm employment rose 62,000 in March, exceeding consensus forecasts of 41,000. February’s gain was revised upward to 66,000. Small employers drove growth, adding 112,000 jobs led by health care and construction, while trade, transportation and utilities lost 58,000.
By C.S. Hamlin ~ April 1, 2026
U.S. private-sector employment rose 62,000 in March 2026 according to the ADP National Employment Report (NER), exceeding the consensus forecast of 40,000-41,000. February’s gain was revised upward to 66,000 from an initial 63,000, marking a modest 4,000 sequential decline from the revised prior month.
Small employers (1-19 employees) led with +112,000 jobs, while education and health services added 58,000 and construction contributed 30,000. Trade, transportation and utilities continued to contract. Annual pay growth held steady at 4.5 percent year-over-year, with a noted boost for job-changers.
ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson described hiring as steady but concentrated in select industries. Credit professionals should maintain cautious optimism: favor exposure to healthcare and construction borrowers while monitoring weakness in trade/transportation portfolios to protect commercial credit lines.
By C.S. Hamlin ~ April 1, 2026
The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.3 in March from 51.6 in February, signaling a moderate expansion for the eighth consecutive month and the strongest reading since January. The final figure came in slightly below the preliminary flash estimate of 52.4 with no material revisions to prior data.
Growth was driven by solid gains in output and new orders, primarily from domestic demand as firms built safety stocks and secured pricing amid the Middle East conflict. International sales continued to decline due to tariffs and shipping disruptions. Input cost inflation accelerated to the highest level since August 2025, while supplier delivery times lengthened at the sharpest pace in 3.5 years. Employment remained essentially flat.
Credit professionals should monitor input price and supply-chain pressures closely, as these could squeeze margins and working capital needs. While the report conveys measured optimism around domestic resilience and positive business confidence, persistent geopolitical risks warrant caution in extending credit to export-heavy or import-dependent manufacturers. Selective tightening of terms on vulnerable names is advisable until inflation and delivery trends stabilize.
By C.S. Hamlin ~ April 1, 2026
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 52.7 for March 2026, marking the third consecutive month of expansion in the manufacturing sector and the strongest reading since August 2022. This 0.3-percentage point increase from February's 52.4 came in above consensus expectations of 52.5. A Manufacturing PMI above 50 indicates sector expansion, while readings above 47.5 over time generally signal broader economic growth; no revisions to prior values were noted.
Driving factors included stronger Production (55.1, up 1.6 points) and further slowing Supplier Deliveries (58.9, up 3.8 points to the highest since May 2022), offset by moderating New Orders (53.5, down 2.3 points) and a slight further dip in Employment (48.7). The Prices Index surged 7.8 points to 78.3—the highest since June 2022—reflecting sharp input cost increases amid tariffs and Middle East developments. Backlog of Orders eased to 54.4.
The report conveys cautious optimism with sustained but uneven growth amid intensifying price pressures and geopolitical uncertainties. Credit professionals should proactively review borrower exposure to rising input costs and potential margin compression, stress-test working capital facilities for supply chain delays, and monitor tariff-sensitive sectors closely while maintaining a modestly positive stance on overall demand resilience.
Released ~ March 31, 2026
The Conference Board (TCB) Consumer Confidence Index rose to 91.8 in March from 91.0 in February, beating consensus forecasts of 87.8. The 0.8-point gain reflected stronger present-situation views, though expectations eased amid tariff passthrough and higher oil costs.