ISM Services PMI, February 2026
By C.S. Hamlin ~ March 4, 2026
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), a key gauge of non-manufacturing sector health, registered 56.1 percent in February 2026. This exceeded the consensus forecast of 53.5 percent and represented a 2.3-percentage-point increase from January’s 53.8 percent, marking the strongest reading since July 2022 and the 20th straight month of expansion.
Accelerating business activity to 59.9 percent and new orders to 58.6 percent drove the uptick, while employment expanded to 51.8 percent for the third consecutive month. All 10 subindexes entered expansion territory for the first time since March 2021, with prices easing slightly to 63.0 percent amid stable supply chains despite ongoing tariff adaptation.
The report strikes an optimistic tone, highlighting a heating services sector and broad-based strength fueled by AI data-center demand, consumer spending, and improved supply-chain resilience.
For credit professionals, this signals strengthening debtor liquidity across most services industries. Optimism is warranted: review and selectively expand credit lines for clients in high-growth sectors such as finance & insurance, professional services, and healthcare. Maintain tighter monitoring on retail trade, which contracted. Actionable step – update your risk dashboards with these PMI trends today to forecast improved collections through Q2 2026.
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ADP National Employment Report, February 2026
By C.S. Hamlin ~ March 4, 2026
U.S. private sector employment rose by 63,000 jobs in February 2026 per the ADP National Employment Report, released March 4 and beating consensus estimates of 50,000. This marks the best performance since July 2025, up sharply from January’s downwardly revised 11,000 gain.
Driving factors included robust additions in construction (+19,000) and education and health services (+58,000), though professional and business services contracted by 30,000 and manufacturing by 5,000, indicating narrow breadth.
Wage growth for job-stayers held at 4.5 percent year-over-year, with job-changers seeing a record-low pay premium.
The tone reflects cautious optimism amid sectoral imbalances. Credit professionals may find reassurance in overall hiring resilience but should tighten monitoring of credit lines in professional services and manufacturing. Actionable step: Update risk assessments ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payrolls data, favoring diversified portfolios leaning toward healthcare and construction exposures.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI, February 2026
By C.S. Hamlin ~ March 2, 2026
The February 2026 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), registered 52.4 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the unrevised January figure of 52.6 percent. Above the 50-percent benchmark denoting expansion, this represents the second consecutive month of manufacturing growth in 40 months, while signaling continued overall economic expansion for the 16th month.
New orders expanded at 55.8 percent and backlogs grew to 56.6 percent, bolstered by customers’ inventories remaining too low, pointing to production upside. Production held at 53.5 percent, but employment contracted at 48.8 percent and prices jumped sharply to 70.5 percent due to tariffs and metals costs.
Panel commentary reflects guarded optimism amid demand recovery, tempered by cost pressures. Credit professionals should proactively assess tariff exposures in client portfolios, scrutinize supplier lead times, and adjust credit limits for sectors facing margin compression to safeguard against potential delinquencies.
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S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, February 2026
By C.S. Hamlin ~ March 2, 2026
S&P Global’s US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)—a diffusion index where readings above 50 signal expansion—stood at 51.6 in February 2026. This marked a decline from 52.4 in January and the weakest pace of growth in seven months, though the seventh straight month of expansion.
Softer rises in output and new orders, driven by high prices, tariffs and adverse weather, weighed on the headline figure. New export orders contracted for an eighth consecutive month—the sharpest drop since April 2025—primarily from tariff effects on sales to Canada. Employment growth was muted, while business confidence strengthened to an eight-month high.
For credit professionals the tone suggests cautious optimism. Continued expansion and firmer forward sentiment point to potential post-weather rebound, yet tariff uncertainty and restrained selling-price inflation signal margin pressure. Actionable steps include tightening credit reviews on export-heavy manufacturers, stress-testing working-capital needs for domestic-market shifts, and monitoring inventory and supplier-delivery trends for early signs of liquidity strain.
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